Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in Northern Iran May 19 in heavy fog conditions. Iran has made no claims of sabotage and it appears the crash was a result of the conditions although some members of government in Iran have blamed the crash on a United States embargo on aircraft parts. Iran’s foreign minister was also killed in the crash, leaving Iran without two of its key leaders during major tensions in the Middle East, including tensions with Israel after Israel’s attack on an Iranian embassy, Iran’s retaliatory strike and Israel’s following strike.

Although the president’s death is unlikely to lead to any immediate changes in Iran’s governmental organization or its policies, the death may have consequences for the Iranian public’s belief in their government. The Islamic Republic, Iran’s government, operates with a president, vice president and importantly, a supreme leader—Ali Khamenei—who has a final say in almost all government decisions, including major policy decisions and military action. The president and vice president are elected by the public, which has the right to universal suffrage, but the supreme leader is instead elected by the Assembly of Experts, who are appointed by the Guardian Council, a clerical body also mostly controlled by the supreme leader. This gives Khamenei notable power over who is elected as the next supreme leader as well as who is elected as the next president, as the Guardian Council also declares who can run for president.

The power that the supreme leader has over who his successor is poses an issue—depending on who is given the succession, experts warn there may be mass public disapproval and distrust of the Islamic Republic. Following the death of Raisi, who was poised to become the next supreme leader, analysts have expressed concern that the most likely candidate for supreme leader will be Khamenei’s son, which will likely raise concerns about the legitimacy of the Islamic Republic which was designed to replace the monarchy. Who Khamenei chooses to be allowed to run for president in the next election mandated in the 50 days following the crash may have major implications for Iran and the tensioned Middle East as a whole.